August 26, 2019· 40 min

How to Forecast the Future

Orality
Model
82%
Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(116 words)
M:22%
HostTracy Alloway(1,336 words)
M:29%
GuestPhilip Tetlock(3,445 words)
M:27%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic36%
crazy, definitely, absolutely
Engagement66%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, now, so
Repetition100%
people (82x), they (62x), know (54x)
Parallelism100%
So keep listening to Odd Lots ..., And I'm Joe Weisenthal...., So, Joe, I feel and I think we...
Sound Patterns81%
59 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases5%
you know what, i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging10%
may, could, maybe
Passive Voice4%
are even, are even, being used
Abstract Nouns20%
investment, city, conversation
Subordination4%
because, since, though
Sentence Length46%
Avg: 16.6 words/sentence
Word Complexity49%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style34%
483 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style89%
formerly, early, definitely

Description

Every day, people are bombarded with predictions of what will happen in the future. In recent months, talk of 'inflection points' in the markets has heated up, and the possibility of the U.S. economic expansion, now the longest in history, coming to an end is being actively discussed. But how do we know if such predictions are good ones? And how can we learn to be better forecasters ourselves? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Philip Tetlock, the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology and Management at the University of Pennsylvania, and the author of numerous books and papers on the topic of predictions.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.