July 24, 2023· 38 min

Are We About to See the Shortest Housing Cycle Ever?

James Egan

Orality

Model

67%

Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostTracy Alloway(1,311 words)

M:28%

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,400 words)

M:29%

GuestJames Egan(3,904 words)

M:26%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic27%

literally, completely, basically

Engagement62%

you, our, your

Memory Aids100%

listen, now, like

Repetition100%

like (90x), year (54x), think (53x)

Parallelism71%

And I'm Joe Wiesenthal...., But by recent standards, like,..., So we had a really historic ru...

Sound Patterns55%

41 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"

Formulaic Phrases8%

i mean, if you will, so to speak

Literate Indicators

Hedging10%

maybe, relatively, could

Passive Voice4%

are forced, is distressed, be incentivized

Abstract Nouns20%

investment, recommendation, precondition

Subordination7%

since, because, however

Sentence Length38%

Avg: 14.5 words/sentence

Word Complexity47%

investment, analyze, anticipate

Academic Markers0%

Impersonal Style38%

469 personal pronouns found

Descriptive Style100%

literally, completely, really

Description

Last year, as the Federal Reserve hiked rates to the highest levels in decades, there were lots of warnings about an imminent collapse in the US housing market. But home prices have only dipped slightly since then and now they're even recovering, stacking up three consecutive month-on-month gains. Not many people expected the most interest rate-sensitive portion of the economy to be this resilient. So what happened? Morgan Stanley housing strategist James Egan was one of few who was early to forecast that home prices would prove resilient, even as the cost of mortgages went up. In this episode, he walks us through how he sees the housing market now and what it would actually take for home prices to come down. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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