January 22, 2024· 51 min

Brevan Howard's Top Economist Sees Three Huge Macro Turning Points Under Way

Jason Cummins

Orality

Model

50%

Speaker Breakdown

HostTracy Alloway(1,740 words)

M:93%

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,889 words)

M:28%

GuestJason Cummins(6,045 words)

M:27%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic34%

literally, completely, huge

Engagement57%

you, our, your

Memory Aids100%

listen, now, so

Repetition100%

like (92x), about (81x), it's (67x)

Parallelism79%

And I'm Tracy Alloway...., So, go on, Wendy...., So here's what surprised me to...

Sound Patterns54%

56 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"

Formulaic Phrases6%

you know what, i mean, to be honest

Literate Indicators

Hedging9%

maybe, seemingly, probably

Passive Voice5%

is funded, is defined, been worried

Abstract Nouns21%

investment, recommendation, environment

Subordination9%

because, whereas, though

Sentence Length46%

Avg: 16.5 words/sentence

Word Complexity48%

investment, analyze, anticipate

Academic Markers0%

Impersonal Style43%

599 personal pronouns found

Descriptive Style81%

literally, completely, actually

Description

Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts. According to Jason Cummins, the chief economist and head of research at macro hedge fund Brevan Howard, we're currently seeing the demise of three different eras: the end of secular stagnation, the end of China's "get rich it all costs" era, and the end of "the end of history," as liberal democracy clashes with other competing frameworks. On this episode of the podcast, we talk about how these ideas are applied practically, in terms of trades, and also why he believes that recession is coming to the US economy in 2024. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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