April 1, 2024· 45 min

Why the CRE Urban Doom Loop May Still Be Coming

Orality
Model
67%
Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,633 words)
M:28%
HostTracy Alloway(2,118 words)
M:94%
GuestArpit Gupta(4,968 words)
M:26%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic28%
literally, completely, terrible
Engagement51%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, now, so
Repetition100%
like (139x), office (59x), about (58x)
Parallelism100%
And I'm Tracy Alloway...., And I think to some extent, we..., So there were all these storie...
Sound Patterns59%
56 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases2%
i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging8%
maybe, could, might
Passive Voice5%
been refinanced, be between, are forced
Abstract Nouns21%
investment, recommendation, conversation
Subordination8%
though, because, therefore
Sentence Length43%
Avg: 15.8 words/sentence
Word Complexity48%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style49%
486 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style100%
literally, completely, especially

Description

When it comes to the collapse in office real estate, there's a lot of focus on who owns the debt, and what kind of pain must eventually be realized by someone. But there may be an even deeper challenge for big cities like New York or San Francisco. Office buildings, and the various restaurants and shops that cater to daily workers, are big contributors to the tax base of many cities. What happens if that goes into decline? In theory, you can get a doom loop of population loss leading to lower activity, leading to lower taxes, leading to lower spending, leading to worse public service, leading to more population loss and on and on it goes. So is that still a risk in 2024? On this episode we speak with Arpit Gupta, associate professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who has been tracking this risk for awhile. He gives an update on where things stand and why some of the pain may still be possible in the future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.