March 14, 2025· 41 min

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

Ryan Isakow

Orality

Model

68%

Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,302 words)

M:29%

HostTracy Alloway(2,109 words)

M:94%

GuestRyan Isakow(4,257 words)

M:28%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic31%

literally, completely, obviously

Engagement49%

you, our, your

Memory Aids100%

listen, now, like

Repetition100%

like (77x), it's (63x), people (52x)

Parallelism91%

And I'm Joe Weisenthal...., So I saw today people are bett..., But, you know, it, like, gives...

Sound Patterns62%

55 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"

Formulaic Phrases5%

you know what, i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging10%

may, maybe, probably

Passive Voice13%

be gleaned, be excommunicated, be excommunicated

Abstract Nouns21%

investment, recommendation, community

Subordination7%

because, while, until

Sentence Length37%

Avg: 14.3 words/sentence

Word Complexity48%

investment, analyze, anticipate

Academic Markers3%

according to

Impersonal Style51%

438 personal pronouns found

Descriptive Style86%

literally, completely, apply

Description

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack. Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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