April 17, 2025· 38 min

Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?

Orality
Model
80%
Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,184 words)
M:29%
HostTracy Alloway(1,834 words)
M:29%
GuestOzan Tarman(3,755 words)
M:29%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic28%
crazy, basically, very
Engagement75%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, now, like
Repetition100%
like (104x), it's (52x), know (50x)
Parallelism51%
And I'm Tracy Alloway...., But I really feel like this is..., So not only have US equities o...
Sound Patterns80%
60 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases8%
you know what, i mean, to be honest

Literate Indicators

Hedging8%
arguably, could, quite
Passive Voice3%
being identified, are used, be fed
Abstract Nouns21%
investment, question, diversification
Subordination7%
because, since, though
Sentence Length27%
Avg: 11.8 words/sentence
Word Complexity45%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style25%
569 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style74%
arguably, really, immediately

Description

For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets. Read More: End of 'America First' Trade Is Boosting Europe's Markets The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.