April 28, 2025· 43 min

What We Learned About Treasuries on the Night of April 8

Ira Jersey

Orality

Model

67%

Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostTracy Alloway(1,859 words)

M:29%

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,486 words)

M:29%

GuestIra Jersey(5,081 words)

M:94%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic35%

literally, completely, totally

Engagement64%

you, our, your

Memory Aids100%

listen, now, right

Repetition100%

like (78x), about (73x), they (63x)

Parallelism93%

And I'm Joe Wasenthal...., So much has been going on that..., But at least from the perspect...

Sound Patterns64%

60 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"

Formulaic Phrases2%

i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging6%

maybe, rather, might

Passive Voice9%

is supposed, were worried, are created

Abstract Nouns14%

investment, recommendation, liberation

Subordination6%

because, since, therefore

Sentence Length40%

Avg: 15.1 words/sentence

Word Complexity46%

investment, analyze, anticipate

Academic Markers0%

Impersonal Style36%

600 personal pronouns found

Descriptive Style78%

literally, completely, especially

Description

When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break down more and more. It broke down in a sustained way during the intense inflation of 2022. And it's been breaking down again, in an acute way, since President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day." On the night of April 8 and early morning of April 9, we saw a major spike in yields. As Trump put it, the bond market was getting the "yips." But what was actually going on? Who was selling? And why? And what have we learned more broadly about technical and economic demand for US government debt? On this episode, we talked to Ira Jersey, the chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, for a crash course in what drives the bond market in both the short and long terms. Read more: The Bond Investors Who Got Trump to Pause His Tariffs US Bonds Rally as Fed’s Hammack Revives Odds of a June Rate Cut Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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