May 8, 2025· 52 min

How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

Orality
Model
50%

Speaker Breakdown

HostTracy Alloway(1,375 words)
M:28%
HostJoe Weisenthal(1,436 words)
M:29%
GuestArthur Kroeber(6,566 words)
M:28%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic51%
massive, totally, very
Engagement57%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, so, look
Repetition100%
they (128x), think (82x), china (75x)
Parallelism100%
So have you heard the story ab..., And I'm Joe Weisenthal...., So, Joe, one thing I find inte...
Sound Patterns53%
53 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases4%
at the end of the day, i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging9%
maybe, could, suggest
Passive Voice8%
is forced, was inaugurated, were interested
Abstract Nouns25%
investment, prescription, medication
Subordination7%
because, since, until
Sentence Length40%
Avg: 15.1 words/sentence
Word Complexity48%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style43%
575 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style100%
automatically, family, simultaneously

Description

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial talks? Can the Chinese economy -- and its policymakers -- withstand the pain of a trade war? We speak to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics and a long-time China watcher, about how China might actually respond to the new tariff regime. Read more: Xi Fortifies China’s Economy Before First Talks on Trade With US What Years of Practice Tariffs Have Done Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.