July 10, 2025· 44 min

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War

Orality
Model
73%
Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,126 words)
M:29%
HostTracy Alloway(1,690 words)
M:93%
GuestAndrew Bishop(5,770 words)
M:28%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic40%
clearly, very, definitely
Engagement71%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, like, now
Repetition100%
like (89x), right (87x), know (75x)
Parallelism85%
And I'm Joe Weisenthal...., And it's like, what are you co..., But then some years, clearly, ...
Sound Patterns100%
119 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases4%
at the end of the day, i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging7%
may, might, could
Passive Voice6%
be paused, is calculated, was founded
Abstract Nouns19%
investment, business, chase.com/business
Subordination9%
therefore, because, though
Sentence Length32%
Avg: 13.0 words/sentence
Word Complexity48%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style29%
696 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style100%
apply, internationally, clearly

Description

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward. Read more: Israel Is Now Peerless in the Middle East and Markets Israel Emerges Stronger From Iran War, But Risks Blowback Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.