September 4, 2025· 24 min

Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report

Steven Englander

Orality

Model

63%

Mixed oral/literate (blogs, casual essays)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,345 words)

M:28%

HostTracy Alloway(2,545 words)

M:27%

GuestSteven Englander(583 words)

M:28%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic25%

literally, completely, totally

Engagement72%

you, our, your

Memory Aids100%

listen, now, like

Repetition100%

it's (41x), your (36x), like (36x)

Parallelism51%

And we really do have the perf..., And, also, I mean, the the BLS..., And then a few weeks later, yo...

Sound Patterns43%

25 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"

Formulaic Phrases10%

you know what, i mean, the thing is

Literate Indicators

Hedging11%

may, maybe, probably

Passive Voice7%

is even, were created, is characterized

Abstract Nouns32%

investment, recommendation, community

Subordination9%

because, while, unless

Sentence Length28%

Avg: 12.1 words/sentence

Word Complexity48%

investment, analyze, anticipate

Academic Markers0%

Impersonal Style28%

424 personal pronouns found

Descriptive Style85%

literally, completely, apply

Description

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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