November 27, 2025· 49 min

Graham Allison on the Risks of a US-China War

Orality
Model
77%
Oral-dominant (speeches, podcasts, storytelling)

Speaker Breakdown

HostJoe Weisenthal(1,290 words)
M:28%
HostTracy Alloway(1,500 words)
M:29%
GuestGraham Allison(5,278 words)
M:29%

Oral Indicators

Agonistic26%
absolutely, very, amazing
Engagement72%
you, our, your
Memory Aids100%
listen, now, so
Repetition100%
like (67x), china (64x), about (60x)
Parallelism80%
So why would I pay for stuff I..., And I'm Joe Weisenthal...., And I typed US China into Goog...
Sound Patterns67%
66 question(s), alliteration: "markets move", alliteration: "barclays brief"
Formulaic Phrases4%
you know what, i mean

Literate Indicators

Hedging8%
could, maybe, might
Passive Voice5%
been proven, were scared, are magnified
Abstract Nouns22%
investment, information, volatility
Subordination4%
because, since, though
Sentence Length32%
Avg: 12.9 words/sentence
Word Complexity48%
investment, analyze, anticipate
Academic Markers0%
Impersonal Style28%
709 personal pronouns found
Descriptive Style73%
monthly, carefully, exactly

Description

The US and China are in a "Thucydides Trap," whereby the risk of war is heightened when an established power is threatened by a rapidly rising power. This is the framework that's been popularized by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. Professor Allison has been writing about China and the US-China relationship for decades. He's been focused on the growing odds of a violent conflict between the two powers. On this episode, he explains his work and the conditions that drive greater risk of armed conflict. He also tells us what both sides get wrong about each other, and what it will take to reduce the odds of military involvement. More: Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.